diff --git a/src/backend/statistics/mcv.c b/src/backend/statistics/mcv.c
index a708a8f6740..429cafd689b 100644
--- a/src/backend/statistics/mcv.c
+++ b/src/backend/statistics/mcv.c
@@ -1593,12 +1593,18 @@ mcv_get_match_bitmap(PlannerInfo *root, List *clauses,
 					MCVItem    *item = &mcvlist->items[i];
 
 					/*
-					 * For AND-lists, we can also mark NULL items as 'no
-					 * match' (and then skip them). For OR-lists this is not
-					 * possible.
+					 * When the MCV item or the Const value is NULL we can treat
+					 * this as a mismatch. We must not call the operator because
+					 * of strictness.
 					 */
-					if ((!is_or) && item->isnull[idx])
-						matches[i] = false;
+					if (item->isnull[idx] || cst->constisnull)
+					{
+						/* we only care about AND, because OR can't change */
+						if (!is_or)
+							matches[i] = false;
+
+						continue;
+					}
 
 					/* skip MCV items that were already ruled out */
 					if ((!is_or) && (matches[i] == false))
diff --git a/src/test/regress/expected/stats_ext.out b/src/test/regress/expected/stats_ext.out
index 6a070a9649d..94b8a8f8b85 100644
--- a/src/test/regress/expected/stats_ext.out
+++ b/src/test/regress/expected/stats_ext.out
@@ -619,6 +619,32 @@ SELECT m.*
      0 | {1,2,3} | {f,f,f} |         1 |              1
 (1 row)
 
+-- 2 distinct combinations with NULL values, all in the MCV list
+TRUNCATE mcv_lists;
+DROP STATISTICS mcv_lists_stats;
+INSERT INTO mcv_lists (a, b, c, d)
+     SELECT
+         (CASE WHEN mod(i,2) = 0 THEN NULL ELSE 0 END),
+         (CASE WHEN mod(i,2) = 0 THEN NULL ELSE 'x' END),
+         (CASE WHEN mod(i,2) = 0 THEN NULL ELSE 0 END),
+         (CASE WHEN mod(i,2) = 0 THEN NULL ELSE 'x' END)
+     FROM generate_series(1,5000) s(i);
+ANALYZE mcv_lists;
+SELECT * FROM check_estimated_rows('SELECT * FROM mcv_lists WHERE b = ''x'' OR d = ''x''');
+ estimated | actual 
+-----------+--------
+      3750 |   2500
+(1 row)
+
+-- create statistics
+CREATE STATISTICS mcv_lists_stats (mcv) ON b, d FROM mcv_lists;
+ANALYZE mcv_lists;
+SELECT * FROM check_estimated_rows('SELECT * FROM mcv_lists WHERE b = ''x'' OR d = ''x''');
+ estimated | actual 
+-----------+--------
+      2500 |   2500
+(1 row)
+
 -- mcv with arrays
 CREATE TABLE mcv_lists_arrays (
     a TEXT[],
diff --git a/src/test/regress/sql/stats_ext.sql b/src/test/regress/sql/stats_ext.sql
index 7a77d20446e..4bc1536727b 100644
--- a/src/test/regress/sql/stats_ext.sql
+++ b/src/test/regress/sql/stats_ext.sql
@@ -393,6 +393,29 @@ SELECT m.*
  WHERE s.stxname = 'mcv_lists_stats'
    AND d.stxoid = s.oid;
 
+-- 2 distinct combinations with NULL values, all in the MCV list
+TRUNCATE mcv_lists;
+DROP STATISTICS mcv_lists_stats;
+
+INSERT INTO mcv_lists (a, b, c, d)
+     SELECT
+         (CASE WHEN mod(i,2) = 0 THEN NULL ELSE 0 END),
+         (CASE WHEN mod(i,2) = 0 THEN NULL ELSE 'x' END),
+         (CASE WHEN mod(i,2) = 0 THEN NULL ELSE 0 END),
+         (CASE WHEN mod(i,2) = 0 THEN NULL ELSE 'x' END)
+     FROM generate_series(1,5000) s(i);
+
+ANALYZE mcv_lists;
+
+SELECT * FROM check_estimated_rows('SELECT * FROM mcv_lists WHERE b = ''x'' OR d = ''x''');
+
+-- create statistics
+CREATE STATISTICS mcv_lists_stats (mcv) ON b, d FROM mcv_lists;
+
+ANALYZE mcv_lists;
+
+SELECT * FROM check_estimated_rows('SELECT * FROM mcv_lists WHERE b = ''x'' OR d = ''x''');
+
 -- mcv with arrays
 CREATE TABLE mcv_lists_arrays (
     a TEXT[],